PERFORMANCE
MTD
Me: 14.25%
S&P 500: 2.21%
12.01 points better
YTD
Me: 19.86%
S&P 500: 14.41%
5.45 points better
MTD
Me: 14.25%
S&P 500: 2.21%
12.01 points better
YTD
Me: 19.86%
S&P 500: 14.41%
5.45 points better
*****
Tier 1 (10-25%):
Crowdstrike (CRWD) - 19%
Crowdstrike (CRWD) - 19%
Datadog (DDOG) - 19%
Upstart (UPST) - 17%
Roku (ROKU) - 12%
Tier 2 (5-9%):
Asana (ASAN) - 8%
Twilio (TWLO) - 7%
Pinterest (PINS) - 5%
Tier 3 (2-5%):
FuboTV (FUBO) - 3.5%
Snowflake (SNOW) - 3.5%
Digital Turbine (APPS) - 3%
Cash - 3%
11 positions, including cash (11 last month)
11 positions, including cash (11 last month)
*****
ACTIONS FROM THIS PAST MONTH
Added to Upstart significantly as it fell after their lockup expiration.
*****
GENERAL THOUGHTS
Last month I wrote:
At one point mid-month my portfolio hit a bottom for the year at around minus 16% (I had 84% of what I started the year with). But then it turned abruptly and went straight up to finish the month just under positive 5% YTD.
And that trend continued aggressively to the upside through June.
My portfolio finished June up 19.86% YTD (or at 119.86% of what I started with). From the mid-May low point of minus 16% (or 84% of what I started with), my entire portfolio rose 42% (119.86/84 = 1.42) in just six weeks. I guess the "rotation" into "value" and cyclicals has reversed.
As we now start to lap the deepest Covid quarter (Q2), we will start to see divergence in companies showing accelerating vs others showing decelerating revenue. I'm going to lean in hard on the companies that will show accelerating over the next six to nine months. Those include Upstart, Datadog and to a lesser extent Asana.
For reasons I explained last month, I think Upstart has huge potential in the next few months. The growth the company will report in their next 2-3 earnings reports is going to be huge and it will accelerate YoY each quarter. There's likely to be a massive short squeeze that is going to drive the stock price very high very quickly.
At any given time, the portfolio is really driven by one or two positions. It's important to lean into those positions when you see the opportunity. You have to swing for the fence when you get a fat pitch. And that's what I'm going to do with Upstart.
I could of course be wrong. Maybe there is some risk that I don't see. But I'm ok to take that chance. Because I don't use leverage or options to invest I don't have the risk of blowing up over night. So even if something really catastrophic happened to Upstart's business it wouldn't blow up the entire portfolio. The biggest drop I've experienced in a stock was when Stamps.com dropped 50%+ in one day. That happened a few years ago when the company broke their exclusive deal with the USPS. I only mention that because it's first-hand experience of what I consider a devastating drop. It's something I've lived through. So even if Upstart were 30% of my portfolio and it dropped by 50% overnight, it would drop the portfolio by around 15%. That would of course be painful, but it wouldn't blow me up. On the other side, I think the upside potential is so great that it could easily grow into a 30% position before I started to trim.
We'll see how it plays out. My main point is that I think Upstart will really drive results the next month or two. And zooming out further, I think Datadog and Upstart will drive results over the next year. I'll update in real time of course, but that's how I see it currently.
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PORTFOLIO THOUGHTS
I'm still looking to consolidate into fewer positions, which seems likely with earnings reports coming up again.
*****
COMPANY OVERVIEWS
*****
*****
NEW LINEUP GOING FORWARD
Same
Watchlist:
My portfolio finished June up 19.86% YTD (or at 119.86% of what I started with). From the mid-May low point of minus 16% (or 84% of what I started with), my entire portfolio rose 42% (119.86/84 = 1.42) in just six weeks. I guess the "rotation" into "value" and cyclicals has reversed.
As we now start to lap the deepest Covid quarter (Q2), we will start to see divergence in companies showing accelerating vs others showing decelerating revenue. I'm going to lean in hard on the companies that will show accelerating over the next six to nine months. Those include Upstart, Datadog and to a lesser extent Asana.
For reasons I explained last month, I think Upstart has huge potential in the next few months. The growth the company will report in their next 2-3 earnings reports is going to be huge and it will accelerate YoY each quarter. There's likely to be a massive short squeeze that is going to drive the stock price very high very quickly.
At any given time, the portfolio is really driven by one or two positions. It's important to lean into those positions when you see the opportunity. You have to swing for the fence when you get a fat pitch. And that's what I'm going to do with Upstart.
I could of course be wrong. Maybe there is some risk that I don't see. But I'm ok to take that chance. Because I don't use leverage or options to invest I don't have the risk of blowing up over night. So even if something really catastrophic happened to Upstart's business it wouldn't blow up the entire portfolio. The biggest drop I've experienced in a stock was when Stamps.com dropped 50%+ in one day. That happened a few years ago when the company broke their exclusive deal with the USPS. I only mention that because it's first-hand experience of what I consider a devastating drop. It's something I've lived through. So even if Upstart were 30% of my portfolio and it dropped by 50% overnight, it would drop the portfolio by around 15%. That would of course be painful, but it wouldn't blow me up. On the other side, I think the upside potential is so great that it could easily grow into a 30% position before I started to trim.
We'll see how it plays out. My main point is that I think Upstart will really drive results the next month or two. And zooming out further, I think Datadog and Upstart will drive results over the next year. I'll update in real time of course, but that's how I see it currently.
*****
I'm still looking to consolidate into fewer positions, which seems likely with earnings reports coming up again.
*****
COMPANY OVERVIEWS
I don't have time to write up company overviews this month. But Crowdstrike, Asana, and Digital Turbine all reported stellar earnings. Asana's stock nearly doubled in June and it has moved into an 8% position.
DocuSign also reported a stellar report. I dropped the stock in March because I thought their growth would slow substantially coming out of the lockdowns. I was wrong. The company reported a revelation of an earnings report, and it's my #1 watchlist contender.
I also looked at UiPath and Latch.com, but passed on both for now.
*****
MACRO THOUGHTS
None.
None.
*****
NEW LINEUP GOING FORWARD
Same
Watchlist:
DocuSign
UiPath
Latch.com
*****
*****
ACTIONS FOR NEXT MONTH
Nothing specific.
Nothing specific.
