October Portfolio Roundup

 

PERFORMANCE
MTD
Me: 7.02%
S&P 500: 6.91%

0.11 points better

YTD
Me: 59.5%

S&P 500: 22.61%

36.89 points better

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CURRENT PORTFOLIO

Tier 1 (10-25%):
21% - DDOG

19% - UPST

12% - ZI

11% - CRWD

Tier 2 (5-9%):
8% - FUBO

6% - MNDY

Tier 3 (2-5%):

4% - DOCS

4% - GLBE

16% - Cash

9 position including cash

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ACTIONS FROM THIS PAST MONTH 

Added:

FUBO

Sold:

TWLO

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GENERAL THOUGHTS
I've been underwater with tour and haven't had time for investing.

I sold Twilio after scanning their earnings release. The past two earnings I said "from a high level we can see that there is high revenue growth but no improving margins". And that was the case once again with this release. This time the market sold it off about 17% because on top of that they guided lower and had a management shakeup. 

It's funny, because I wasn't able to give much thought to it. I was in the middle of four shows in a row and I just scanned straight to the numbers, input them on my spreadsheet and decided immediately that I was out. I gave myself no time to consider all the great opportunities ahead for Twilio. I was forced to just look at what they reported today. And based on that, I sold.

Lesson learned. Twilio is an incredible company and I'm sure anyone could do well by holding the stock for 3-5 years, but that doesn't work for a concentrated portfolio. So I'm out and unlikely to get back in. I managed to hold Twilio twice over two years and not get any appreciation from the stock. Oh well.

Datadog and Upstart have driven results this year but that was my plan a few months ago.

This month, I loaded up on Fubo when it hit $23 again taking it from a 2% allocation to over 8%. I just think that they've had two solid reports in a row with the stock going nowhere, and they will again. At some point the stock will follow company performance.

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NEW LINEUP GOING FORWARD
Same

September Portfolio Roundup

 

PERFORMANCE
MTD
Me: 3.78%
S&P 500: (4.76%)

8.54 points better

YTD
Me: 49.42%
S&P 500: 14.68%

34.74 points better

*****

CURRENT PORTFOLIO

(no decimal points)

Tier 1 (10-25%):
UPST - 18%

DDOG - 18%

CRWD - 11%

ZI - 10%

Tier 2 (5-9%):
FUBO - 6%

TWLO - 6%

Tier 3 (2-5%):

DOCS - 4%

MNDY - 3%

GLBE - 2%

Cash - 22%

10 positions, including cash

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ACTIONS FROM THIS PAST MONTH 
Bought:
GLBE

MNDY

Added:

ZI

Trimmed:
UPST

Sold:

ROKU

ASAN

DOCU

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GENERAL THOUGHTS
I've been so busy I haven't been able to give much thought to investing this past month. I'm waiting for the market to get really manic again, which I think will happen soon so I can deploy some cash. 

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COMPANY OVERVIEWS

UPST    

I've trimmed it quite a bit, or it would have grown to something like 30% of the total portfolio. I haven't done a great job of trimming because I started trimming at around $200 and now the stock is at $300. And that also means that I will have to add back at some point. 

But my plan is just to wait for the market to get really manic again, which happens about every six months, and then add back when it seems like it's really silly.

CRWD

I'll probably let Crowdstrike fall to below 10% or less of the portfolio. Their growth is now starting to slowdown and it's a $55 billion dollar company. So I think it's going to be hard for the stock to double or triple over the next 12 months.

ZI

I have a lot of confidence in ZI right now, as I think the YoY revenue will continue to show acceleration for the next few quarters. I'm going to probably build up the position more.

FUBO

I'm increasing my allocation to FUBO because I think the company has had two solid earnings reports yet the stock hasn't moved. If they have another strong quarter + issue strong guidance for Q4, I think the stock will follow.

TWLO

I'm unsure of what to do about Twilio. I think it's relatively "undervalued" for what it is, and so I'll give it another quartrer.

ASAN

I sold out of Asana simply because I don't think the stock price action is warranted given the company's results. It's growing nicely but has a negative 40% operating margin and I don't think it deserves to be one fo the most expensive stocks in the SAAS universe given that. 

I also think that the owner of the company, who, at age 36, with a net worth of $17 billion, is the 107th wealthiest person in the world, is manipulating the stock price a bit. 

ROKU

I also sold out of Roku simply because I think that their user growth slowing precedes the revenue growth slowing. 

DOCU

I finally sold out of Docusign again, and won't reenter most likely. I never did well with Docu, but that's ok. 

GLBE

I'm excited to learn more about Global E. It's a company with relatively lower margins, but the top line growth and TAM are exciting. I've currently only got a try-out position.

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NEW LINEUP GOING FORWARD

Same