May Portfolio Roundup

  PERFORMANCE

*****

GENERAL THOUGHTS

This was the first month where I felt like I really made progress on the technical analysis part of my portfolio. Like I really feel like I've got a simple system that will help protect the downside but allow for upside. I guess we'll see. But using the "Simon Sez" methods from Quill on the MF boards has been revolutionary. I actually felt like I did years ago when I found Saul's monthly roundups – totally engrossed when I came across it. 

So the funny thing is that my stocks really ripped this month. If I had been fully invested I would have been up a lot more. For instance I have a small little portfolio that I run parallel where I was fully invested in my target names and it was up 30% MTD. That's right. Not being fully invested I was up 8%. So that's a big difference. But I've got something I can use going forward, and I wasn't fully invested in it as I tried it out. The positions I was in were only about half allocations. For instance my target position for ZScaler is 10% yet I was only about 5% invested during the month despite it ripping higher. Why? Basically I didn't want to chase. I just wanted to see if my trading system worked. So we'll see how it goes but I feel good about it. Finally. After falling so far I feel like I've got something that can get me back to where I was. It will take time. But I don't feel out of control anymore.

*****

PORTFOLIO

60% CASH (INCL BIL AND FDRXX)

April Portfolio Roundup

 PERFORMANCE

*****

GENERAL THOUGHTS

This month wasn't particularly bad until Enphase and Cloudflare reported the last week of April and both fell 25% on earnings. 

I'm really starting to get discouraged now. Like it's not even fun anymore. I keep trying to learn and do new things but nothing works. At least I'm taking smaller bets. What I'm trying to do really is catch a falling knife with these companies and they just keep falling and falling. I got out way way too late and now even 18 months later they continue to fall. 

At some point things will turn around but there still really is no end in sight. In 2021 it was all macro – the Fed raising rates to curb inflation, which crushed long duration assets. Despite that my companies kept putting up great numbers. The stocks fell but the earnings were still good. 

In 2022, now they are putting up bad numbers. Cloudflare had performed well YTD until they reported this past week. The stock is back to basically even for the year yet I've somehow managed to lose money on it (because I've been trading it). 

The truth is that even using a trend following strategy it's really difficult to account for the volatility. When a stock falls 25% in one day while being above trend there's not much you can do. The only thing to avoid it would be to sell out before earnings and then buy back in. The problem with doing that of course is if the report is good you miss the jump. 

At the end of this month I'm still up 40% from January 2020 but it doesn't really feel like it at all. 

*****

PORTFOLIO

54% CASH (INCL BIL AND FDRXX)